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CIK 1021162

Triumph Group, Inc.
CIK 0001021162 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
54.1
composite ยท 3 signals ยท ELEVATED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-12 ยท FY 2025-03-31 ยท ELEVATED55.3

Restatement predictor

F-Score 1.66 โ€” misstatement risk 1.7x the base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2025-05-28) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 1.658,
  "probability": 0.00614,
  "components": {
    "rsst": 0.0018,
    "drec": 0.01,
    "dinv": 0.0239,
    "soft": 0.7347,
    "dcs": 0.0447,
    "droa": -0.2787,
    "issue": 1
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-03-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1021162/000095017025078408/0000950170-25-078408-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2025-05-28"
  }
}
P-01 ยท FY 2025-03-31 ยท CLEAN30.4

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.44 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2025-05-28) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.439,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1.058,
    "GMI": 0.858,
    "AQI": 1.021,
    "SGI": 1.059,
    "DEPI": 1.166,
    "SGAI": 1.101,
    "LVGI": 0.984,
    "TATA": -0.001
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [],
  "sloan_accruals": 0.0018,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 1261962000,
    "revenue_t1": 1192043000,
    "total_assets_t": 1626928000,
    "net_income_t": 40874000,
    "cfo_t": 37885000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-03-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1021162/000095017025078408/0000950170-25-078408-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2025-05-28"
  }
}
P-05 ยท FY 2025-03-31 ยท CLEAN58.2

Tax arbitrage

ETR 13.5% โ€” within normal range of statutory
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2025-05-28) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2025-03-31": 0.1349,
    "2023-03-31": 0.0443
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2025-03-31": 0.0751,
    "2023-03-31": 0.1657
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-03-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1021162/000095017025078408/0000950170-25-078408-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2025-05-28"
  }
}