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CIK 1022646

ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP.
CIK 0001022646 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
18.6
composite ยท 4 signals ยท ELEVATED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-05 ยท FY 2017-12-31 ยท ELEVATED100.0

Tax arbitrage

[FY2017 data, stale โ€” no more recent pretax-income figure in XBRL] ETR -8.1% vs 21% statutory โ€” gap persistent across 2 of 2 years
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2019-03-08) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2017-12-31": -0.0811,
    "2016-12-31": -0.0118
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2017-12-31": 0.2911,
    "2016-12-31": 0.2218
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": true,
  "latest_filing_period": "2019-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022646/000156459019006848/0001564590-19-006848-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2019-03-08"
  }
}
P-13 ยท FY 2019-12-31 ยท ELEVATED20.0

Zombie / distress

Altman Z'' -12.80 in the distress zone
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2020-04-15) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2019-12-31": 1.755,
    "2018-12-31": 2.392,
    "2017-12-31": 1.102,
    "2016-12-31": 4.513
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 0,
  "altman_z_double_prime": -12.8,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": 227073000,
    "interest_expense_t": 129398000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2019-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022646/000156459020016770/0001564590-20-016770-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2020-04-15"
  }
}
P-01 ยท FY 2019-12-31 ยท CLEAN4.5

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -3.34 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2020-04-15) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -3.343,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 1.065,
    "SGI": 0.831,
    "DEPI": 1,
    "SGAI": 1,
    "LVGI": 1.726,
    "TATA": -0.107
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "DSRI",
    "GMI",
    "DEPI",
    "SGAI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": -0.1096,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 742032000,
    "revenue_t1": 892499000,
    "total_assets_t": 1815276000,
    "net_income_t": 107988000,
    "cfo_t": 302416000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2019-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022646/000156459020016770/0001564590-20-016770-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2020-04-15"
  }
}
P-12 ยท FY 2019-12-31 ยท CLEAN20.9

Restatement predictor

F-Score 0.63 โ€” at or below the population base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2020-04-15) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 0.627,
  "probability": 0.00232,
  "components": {
    "rsst": -0.1096,
    "drec": null,
    "dinv": -0.0106,
    "soft": 0.9937,
    "dcs": -0.1686,
    "droa": 0.0103,
    "issue": 0
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2019-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1022646/000156459020016770/0001564590-20-016770-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2020-04-15"
  }
}