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CIK 1191857

MOD PAC CORP
CIK 0001191857 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
21.4
composite ยท 4 signals ยท CLEAN

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-01 ยท FY 2012-12-31 ยท CLEAN27.5

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.54 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2013-02-21) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.536,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1.057,
    "GMI": 1.01,
    "AQI": 1.609,
    "SGI": 1.054,
    "DEPI": 1,
    "SGAI": 1.006,
    "LVGI": 0.907,
    "TATA": -0.094
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "DEPI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": -0.0965,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 59284000,
    "revenue_t1": 56225000,
    "total_assets_t": 33139000,
    "net_income_t": 1689000,
    "cfo_t": 4792000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2012-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1191857/000143774913001778/0001437749-13-001778-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2013-02-21"
  }
}
P-05 ยท FY 2012-12-31 ยท CLEAN0.0

Tax arbitrage

ETR 33.6% โ€” within normal range of statutory
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2013-02-21) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2012-12-31": 0.3356,
    "2011-12-31": 0.3191,
    "2010-12-31": 0.0488
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2012-12-31": -0.1256,
    "2011-12-31": -0.1091,
    "2010-12-31": 0.1612
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2012-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1191857/000143774913001778/0001437749-13-001778-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2013-02-21"
  }
}
P-12 ยท FY 2012-12-31 ยท CLEAN21.2

Restatement predictor

F-Score 0.64 โ€” at or below the population base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2013-02-21) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 0.636,
  "probability": 0.00235,
  "components": {
    "rsst": -0.0965,
    "drec": 0.0191,
    "dinv": -0.0075,
    "soft": 0.4224,
    "dcs": 0.0435,
    "droa": -0.0091,
    "issue": 1
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2012-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1191857/000143774913001778/0001437749-13-001778-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2013-02-21"
  }
}
P-13 ยท FY 2012-12-31 ยท CLEAN0.0

Zombie / distress

Interest coverage 14.77x โ€” servicing debt from operations
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2013-02-21) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2012-12-31": 14.767,
    "2011-12-31": 14.552,
    "2010-12-31": 7.81,
    "2009-12-31": -7.931
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 0,
  "altman_z_double_prime": 8.974,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": 2791000,
    "interest_expense_t": 189000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2012-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1191857/000143774913001778/0001437749-13-001778-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2013-02-21"
  }
}