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CIK 1289244

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
CIK 0001289244 · EDGAR ↗
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
54.3
composite · 3 signals · ELEVATED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from — no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded — never a guess.

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Signals

P-01 · FY 2025-12-31 · ELEVATED40.0

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.14 in the elevated zone
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) ↗
Evidence — inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.136,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 1,
    "SGI": 1.273,
    "DEPI": 1,
    "SGAI": 1,
    "LVGI": 0.98,
    "TATA": 0.02
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "DSRI",
    "GMI",
    "AQI",
    "DEPI",
    "SGAI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": 0.0203,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 1110000000,
    "revenue_t1": 872000000,
    "total_assets_t": 12176000000,
    "net_income_t": 503000000,
    "cfo_t": 259000000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1289244/000127381326000011/0001273813-26-000011-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}
P-05 · FY 2025-12-31 · CLEAN62.4

Tax arbitrage

ETR 18.0% — within normal range of statutory
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) ↗
Evidence — inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 0.1798,
    "2024-12-31": 0.1967,
    "2023-12-31": -0.1392
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 0.0302,
    "2024-12-31": 0.0133,
    "2023-12-31": 0.3492
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1289244/000127381326000011/0001273813-26-000011-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}
P-12 · FY 2025-12-31 · CLEAN23.9

Restatement predictor

F-Score 0.72 — at or below the population base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) ↗
Evidence — inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 0.718,
  "probability": 0.00266,
  "components": {
    "rsst": 0.0203,
    "drec": null,
    "dinv": null,
    "soft": 0.9656,
    "dcs": 0.2729,
    "droa": 0.0097,
    "issue": 0
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1289244/000127381326000011/0001273813-26-000011-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}