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CIK 1324189

Orchids Paper Products CO /DE
CIK 0001324189 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
72.0
composite ยท 4 signals ยท ELEVATED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-13 ยท FY 2018-12-31 ยท ELEVATED94.1

Zombie / distress

Interest coverage -1.16x below 1.0
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2019-04-05) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2018-12-31": -1.164,
    "2017-12-31": -0.787,
    "2016-12-31": 11.136,
    "2015-12-31": 37.332
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 2,
  "altman_z_double_prime": -3.626,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": -23475000,
    "interest_expense_t": 20165000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2018-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324189/000114420419018403/0001144204-19-018403-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2019-04-05"
  }
}
P-01 ยท FY 2018-12-31 ยท CLEAN17.4

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.89 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2019-04-05) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.892,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 0.908,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 0.99,
    "SGI": 1.149,
    "DEPI": 0.748,
    "SGAI": 1.498,
    "LVGI": 1.181,
    "TATA": -0.06
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "GMI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": -0.0593,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 186682000,
    "revenue_t1": 162484000,
    "total_assets_t": 334185000,
    "net_income_t": -37672000,
    "cfo_t": -17497000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2018-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324189/000114420419018403/0001144204-19-018403-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2019-04-05"
  }
}
P-05 ยท FY 2016-12-31 ยท CLEAN0.0

Tax arbitrage

[FY2016 data, stale โ€” no more recent pretax-income figure in XBRL] ETR 25.6% โ€” within normal range of statutory
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2019-04-05) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2016-12-31": 0.2561
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2016-12-31": -0.0461
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": true,
  "latest_filing_period": "2018-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324189/000114420419018403/0001144204-19-018403-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2019-04-05"
  }
}
P-12 ยท FY 2018-12-31 ยท CLEAN5.4

Restatement predictor

F-Score 0.16 โ€” at or below the population base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2019-04-05) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 0.163,
  "probability": 0.0006,
  "components": {
    "rsst": -0.0593,
    "drec": 0.0015,
    "dinv": 0.0017,
    "soft": 0.1875,
    "dcs": 0.1458,
    "droa": -0.132,
    "issue": 0
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2018-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1324189/000114420419018403/0001144204-19-018403-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2019-04-05"
  }
}