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CIK 1365555

AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC.
CIK 0001365555 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
39.1
composite ยท 5 signals ยท CLEAN

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-13 ยท FY 2014-12-31 ยท ELEVATED20.0

Zombie / distress

[FY2014 data, stale โ€” no more recent EBIT figure in XBRL] Altman Z'' 0.56 in the distress zone
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2017-04-04) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2017-12-31": null,
    "2016-12-31": null,
    "2015-12-31": null,
    "2014-12-31": 8.628
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 0,
  "altman_z_double_prime": 0.556,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": 395659000,
    "interest_expense_t": 45857000
  },
  "stale": true,
  "latest_filing_period": "2017-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1365555/000136555517000059/0001365555-17-000059-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2017-04-04"
  }
}
P-01 ยท FY 2017-12-31 ยท CLEAN31.8

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.39 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2018-03-16) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.39,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 0.996,
    "SGI": 1.093,
    "DEPI": 1.032,
    "SGAI": 1,
    "LVGI": 1,
    "TATA": 0.001
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "DSRI",
    "GMI",
    "SGAI",
    "LVGI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": 0.0011,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 5958941000,
    "revenue_t1": 5450456000,
    "total_assets_t": 25218630000,
    "net_income_t": -348889000,
    "cfo_t": -375297000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2017-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1365555/000136555518000052/0001365555-18-000052-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2018-03-16"
  }
}
P-05 ยท FY 2016-12-31 ยท CLEAN43.3

Tax arbitrage

ETR 17.1% โ€” within normal range of statutory
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2018-03-16) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2016-12-31": 0.1706,
    "2015-12-31": 0.0827
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2016-12-31": 0.0394,
    "2015-12-31": 0.1273
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2017-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1365555/000136555518000052/0001365555-18-000052-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2018-03-16"
  }
}
P-07 ยท FY 2014-12-31 ยท CLEAN11.5

Pension underfunding

[FY2014 data, stale โ€” no more recent pension disclosure in XBRL] DB plan 94% funded
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2017-04-04) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "benefit_obligation": 49546000,
  "plan_assets": 46734000,
  "funded_ratio": 0.9432,
  "deficit": -2812000,
  "deficit_vs_equity": 0.0015,
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": "<90% funded",
    "triggered": "<80% funded or deficit >25% of equity"
  },
  "stale": true,
  "latest_filing_period": "2017-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1365555/000136555517000059/0001365555-17-000059-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2017-04-04"
  }
}
P-12 ยท FY 2017-12-31 ยท CLEAN23.1

Restatement predictor

F-Score 0.69 โ€” at or below the population base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2018-03-16) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 0.694,
  "probability": 0.00257,
  "components": {
    "rsst": 0.0011,
    "drec": null,
    "dinv": null,
    "soft": 0.9518,
    "dcs": 0.0933,
    "droa": -0.032,
    "issue": 0
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2017-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1365555/000136555518000052/0001365555-18-000052-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2018-03-16"
  }
}