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CIK 1508677

Colt Defense LLC
CIK 0001508677 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
51.5
composite ยท 4 signals ยท TRIGGERED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-01 ยท FY 2013-12-31 ยท TRIGGERED62.7

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -1.47 exceeds the -1.78 manipulation threshold
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K/A on SEC.gov (filed 2015-05-07) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -1.468,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 0.773,
    "GMI": 0.877,
    "AQI": 2.475,
    "SGI": 1.268,
    "DEPI": 1.194,
    "SGAI": 1,
    "LVGI": 0.76,
    "TATA": 0.075
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "SGAI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": 0.0927,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 270883000,
    "revenue_t1": 213616000,
    "total_assets_t": 264734000,
    "net_income_t": 22867000,
    "cfo_t": 3037000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2013-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1508677/000110465915035667/0001104659-15-035667-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K/A",
    "filed": "2015-05-07"
  }
}
P-05 ยท FY 2013-12-31 ยท ELEVATED0.0

Tax arbitrage

ETR 6.7% vs 21% statutory โ€” gap persistent across 1 of 2 years
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K/A on SEC.gov (filed 2015-05-07) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2013-12-31": 0.0668,
    "2011-12-31": 0.3887
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2013-12-31": 0.1432,
    "2011-12-31": -0.1787
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2013-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1508677/000110465915035667/0001104659-15-035667-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K/A",
    "filed": "2015-05-07"
  }
}
P-12 ยท FY 2013-12-31 ยท ELEVATED56.3

Restatement predictor

F-Score 1.69 โ€” misstatement risk 1.7x the base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K/A on SEC.gov (filed 2015-05-07) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 1.689,
  "probability": 0.00625,
  "components": {
    "rsst": 0.0927,
    "drec": -0.0022,
    "dinv": 0.1221,
    "soft": 0.8363,
    "dcs": 0.2702,
    "droa": 0.1284,
    "issue": 1
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2013-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1508677/000110465915035667/0001104659-15-035667-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K/A",
    "filed": "2015-05-07"
  }
}
P-13 ยท FY 2013-12-31 ยท ELEVATED20.0

Zombie / distress

Altman Z'' 0.32 in the distress zone
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K/A on SEC.gov (filed 2015-05-07) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2013-12-31": 1.841,
    "2012-12-31": 0.731,
    "2011-12-31": 1.333,
    "2010-12-31": 0.751
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 0,
  "altman_z_double_prime": 0.319,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": 50974000,
    "interest_expense_t": 27687000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2013-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1508677/000110465915035667/0001104659-15-035667-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K/A",
    "filed": "2015-05-07"
  }
}