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CIK 820736

ORBITAL SCIENCES CORP /DE/
CIK 0000820736 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
28.9
composite ยท 4 signals ยท ELEVATED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-12 ยท FY 2013-12-31 ยท ELEVATED36.2

Restatement predictor

F-Score 1.08 โ€” misstatement risk 1.1x the base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2014-02-25) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 1.085,
  "probability": 0.00401,
  "components": {
    "rsst": 0.0126,
    "drec": 0.0675,
    "dinv": 0.0003,
    "soft": 0.6016,
    "dcs": -0.1084,
    "droa": 0.0029,
    "issue": 1
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2013-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820736/000082073614000017/0000820736-14-000017-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2014-02-25"
  }
}
P-01 ยท FY 2013-12-31 ยท CLEAN35.2

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.29 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2014-02-25) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.291,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1.23,
    "GMI": 1.066,
    "AQI": 0.743,
    "SGI": 0.95,
    "DEPI": 0.897,
    "SGAI": 0.933,
    "LVGI": 0.895,
    "TATA": 0.012
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [],
  "sloan_accruals": 0.0126,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 1365271000,
    "revenue_t1": 1436769000,
    "total_assets_t": 1284761000,
    "net_income_t": 68366000,
    "cfo_t": 52615000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2013-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820736/000082073614000017/0000820736-14-000017-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2014-02-25"
  }
}
P-05 ยท FY 2013-12-31 ยท CLEAN0.0

Tax arbitrage

ETR 34.0% โ€” within normal range of statutory
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2014-02-25) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2013-12-31": 0.3402,
    "2012-12-31": 0.3353,
    "2011-12-31": 0.2344
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2013-12-31": -0.1302,
    "2012-12-31": -0.1253,
    "2011-12-31": -0.0244
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2013-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820736/000082073614000017/0000820736-14-000017-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2014-02-25"
  }
}
P-13 ยท FY 2013-12-31 ยท CLEAN0.0

Zombie / distress

Interest coverage 24.92x โ€” servicing debt from operations
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2014-02-25) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2013-12-31": 24.922,
    "2012-12-31": 9.984,
    "2011-12-31": 7.191,
    "2010-12-31": 7.467
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 0,
  "altman_z_double_prime": 6.097,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": 113545000,
    "interest_expense_t": 4556000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2013-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820736/000082073614000017/0000820736-14-000017-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2014-02-25"
  }
}