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AYR

AIRCASTLE LIMITED
CIK 0001362988 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
53.8
composite ยท 3 signals ยท TRIGGERED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-12 ยท FY 2026-02-28 ยท TRIGGERED64.9

Restatement predictor

F-Score 1.95 โ€” misstatement risk 1.9x the base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-04-21) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 1.948,
  "probability": 0.00721,
  "components": {
    "rsst": -0.033,
    "drec": null,
    "dinv": null,
    "soft": 0.98,
    "dcs": 0.1878,
    "droa": 0.0071,
    "issue": 1
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2026-02-28",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362988/000162828026026216/0001628280-26-026216-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-04-21"
  }
}
P-01 ยท FY 2026-02-28 ยท CLEAN30.2

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.44 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-04-21) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.442,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 1,
    "SGI": 1.188,
    "DEPI": 1,
    "SGAI": 0.872,
    "LVGI": 1.003,
    "TATA": -0.032
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "DSRI",
    "GMI",
    "AQI",
    "DEPI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": -0.033,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 975119000,
    "revenue_t1": 820975000,
    "total_assets_t": 8989786000,
    "net_income_t": 194048000,
    "cfo_t": 483053000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2026-02-28",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362988/000162828026026216/0001628280-26-026216-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-04-21"
  }
}
P-05 ยท FY 2026-02-28 ยท CLEAN16.3

Tax arbitrage

ETR 13.1% โ€” within normal range of statutory
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-04-21) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2026-02-28": 0.131,
    "2025-02-28": 0.1541,
    "2024-02-29": 0.2229
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2026-02-28": 0.079,
    "2025-02-28": 0.0559,
    "2024-02-29": -0.0129
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2026-02-28",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362988/000162828026026216/0001628280-26-026216-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-04-21"
  }
}