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CGABL

Carlyle Group Inc.
CIK 0001527166 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
42.5
composite ยท 4 signals ยท ELEVATED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-01 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท ELEVATED53.0

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -1.92 in the elevated zone
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -1.92,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 1,
    "SGI": 0.881,
    "DEPI": 1.082,
    "SGAI": 1,
    "LVGI": 1,
    "TATA": 0.14
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "DSRI",
    "GMI",
    "SGAI",
    "LVGI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": 0.1564,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 4779800000,
    "revenue_t1": 5425800000,
    "total_assets_t": 29116000000,
    "net_income_t": 808700000,
    "cfo_t": -3275500000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/0001527166-26-000009-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}
P-07 ยท FY 2023-12-31 ยท ELEVATED36.7

Pension underfunding

[FY2023 data, stale โ€” no more recent pension disclosure in XBRL] DB plan 82% funded โ€” -$13M deficit (0% of equity)
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "benefit_obligation": 71900000,
  "plan_assets": 58800000,
  "funded_ratio": 0.8178,
  "deficit": -13100000,
  "deficit_vs_equity": 0.0023,
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": "<90% funded",
    "triggered": "<80% funded or deficit >25% of equity"
  },
  "stale": true,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/0001527166-26-000009-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}
P-05 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท CLEAN3.6

Tax arbitrage

ETR 18.5% โ€” within normal range of statutory
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 0.185,
    "2024-12-31": 0.2171
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 0.025,
    "2024-12-31": -0.0071
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/0001527166-26-000009-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}
P-12 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท CLEAN23.5

Restatement predictor

F-Score 0.71 โ€” at or below the population base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 0.706,
  "probability": 0.00261,
  "components": {
    "rsst": 0.1564,
    "drec": null,
    "dinv": null,
    "soft": 0.9246,
    "dcs": -0.1191,
    "droa": -0.0164,
    "issue": 0
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527166/000152716626000009/0001527166-26-000009-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}