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HWM

HOWMET AEROSPACE INC.
CIK 0000004281 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
32.3
composite ยท 4 signals ยท ELEVATED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-12 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท ELEVATED37.1

Restatement predictor

F-Score 1.11 โ€” misstatement risk 1.1x the base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-12) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 1.114,
  "probability": 0.00412,
  "components": {
    "rsst": -0.0347,
    "drec": 0.0083,
    "dinv": 0.0008,
    "soft": 0.7017,
    "dcs": 0.0985,
    "droa": 0.0251,
    "issue": 1
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/0000004281-26-000012-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-12"
  }
}
P-01 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท CLEAN28.7

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.50 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-12) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.496,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1.018,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 0.948,
    "SGI": 1.111,
    "DEPI": 1.057,
    "SGAI": 0.96,
    "LVGI": 0.897,
    "TATA": -0.034
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "GMI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": -0.0347,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 8252000000,
    "revenue_t1": 7430000000,
    "total_assets_t": 11179000000,
    "net_income_t": 1508000000,
    "cfo_t": 1884000000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/0000004281-26-000012-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-12"
  }
}
P-05 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท CLEAN9.2

Tax arbitrage

ETR 18.0% โ€” within normal range of statutory
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-12) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 0.1804,
    "2024-12-31": 0.1649,
    "2023-12-31": 0.2154
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 0.0296,
    "2024-12-31": 0.0451,
    "2023-12-31": -0.0054
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/0000004281-26-000012-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-12"
  }
}
P-13 ยท FY 2023-12-31 ยท CLEAN0.0

Zombie / distress

[FY2023 data, stale โ€” no more recent EBIT figure in XBRL] Interest coverage 5.52x โ€” servicing debt from operations
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-12) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": null,
    "2024-12-31": null,
    "2023-12-31": 5.518,
    "2022-12-31": 4.013
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 0,
  "altman_z_double_prime": 2.94,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": 1203000000,
    "interest_expense_t": 218000000
  },
  "stale": true,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/0000004281-26-000012-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-12"
  }
}