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JOE

The St. Joe Company
CIK 0000745308 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
43.0
composite ยท 4 signals ยท ELEVATED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-12 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท ELEVATED53.2

Restatement predictor

F-Score 1.60 โ€” misstatement risk 1.6x the base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-25) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 1.596,
  "probability": 0.0059,
  "components": {
    "rsst": -0.0491,
    "drec": null,
    "dinv": -0.0005,
    "soft": 0.8874,
    "dcs": 0.2744,
    "droa": 0.0279,
    "issue": 1
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745308/000110465926019676/0001104659-26-019676-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-25"
  }
}
P-01 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท CLEAN30.0

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.45 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-25) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.451,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 1.012,
    "SGI": 1.274,
    "DEPI": 0.822,
    "SGAI": 1,
    "LVGI": 0.905,
    "TATA": -0.049
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "DSRI",
    "GMI",
    "SGAI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": -0.0491,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 513246000,
    "revenue_t1": 402737000,
    "total_assets_t": 1518426000,
    "net_income_t": 115627000,
    "cfo_t": 190696000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745308/000110465926019676/0001104659-26-019676-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-25"
  }
}
P-05 ยท FY 2025-12-31 ยท CLEAN0.0

Tax arbitrage

ETR 25.3% โ€” within normal range of statutory
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-25) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 0.2529,
    "2024-12-31": 0.2639,
    "2023-12-31": 0.2599
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": -0.0429,
    "2024-12-31": -0.0539,
    "2023-12-31": -0.0499
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745308/000110465926019676/0001104659-26-019676-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-25"
  }
}
P-13 ยท FY 2023-12-31 ยท CLEAN0.0

Zombie / distress

[FY2023 data, stale โ€” no more recent EBIT figure in XBRL] Interest coverage 2.96x โ€” servicing debt from operations
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-25) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": null,
    "2024-12-31": null,
    "2023-12-31": 2.963,
    "2022-12-31": 3.344
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 0,
  "altman_z_double_prime": 2.148,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": 90733000,
    "interest_expense_t": 30618000
  },
  "stale": true,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/745308/000110465926019676/0001104659-26-019676-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-25"
  }
}