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UGI

UGI CORPORATION
CIK 0000884614 ยท EDGAR โ†—
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
54.7
composite ยท 4 signals ยท ELEVATED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from โ€” no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded โ€” never a guess.

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Signals

P-05 ยท FY 2025-09-30 ยท ELEVATED47.1

Tax arbitrage

ETR 2.6% vs 21% statutory โ€” gap persistent across 1 of 2 years
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2025-11-21) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2025-09-30": 0.0259,
    "2024-09-30": 0.2088
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2025-09-30": 0.1841,
    "2024-09-30": 0.0012
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-09-30",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884614/000088461425000053/0000884614-25-000053-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2025-11-21"
  }
}
P-12 ยท FY 2025-09-30 ยท ELEVATED61.5

Restatement predictor

F-Score 1.85 โ€” misstatement risk 1.8x the base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2025-11-21) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 1.845,
  "probability": 0.00683,
  "components": {
    "rsst": -0.0359,
    "drec": 0.0003,
    "dinv": -0.0017,
    "soft": 0.9783,
    "dcs": 0.01,
    "droa": 0.026,
    "issue": 1
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-09-30",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884614/000088461425000053/0000884614-25-000053-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2025-11-21"
  }
}
P-13 ยท FY 2023-09-30 ยท ELEVATED90.0

Zombie / distress

[FY2023 data, stale โ€” no more recent EBIT figure in XBRL] Interest coverage -3.81x below 1.0
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2025-11-21) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "icr_by_year": {
    "2025-09-30": null,
    "2024-09-30": null,
    "2023-09-30": -3.81,
    "2022-09-30": 5.064
  },
  "consecutive_years_below_1": 1,
  "altman_z_double_prime": 0.332,
  "definitions": {
    "zombie": "ICR<1 for 3+ consecutive FYs (BIS 2018)",
    "z_distress": "<1.1 distress, 1.1-2.6 gray, >2.6 safe"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "ebit_t": -1444000000,
    "interest_expense_t": 379000000
  },
  "stale": true,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-09-30",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884614/000088461425000053/0000884614-25-000053-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2025-11-21"
  }
}
P-01 ยท FY 2025-09-30 ยท CLEAN25.0

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -2.62 โ€” no manipulation profile
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2025-11-21) โ†—
Evidence โ€” inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -2.623,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 0.996,
    "GMI": 1,
    "AQI": 0.995,
    "SGI": 1.011,
    "DEPI": 1,
    "SGAI": 0.933,
    "LVGI": 0.977,
    "TATA": -0.036
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "GMI",
    "DEPI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": -0.0359,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 7287000000,
    "revenue_t1": 7210000000,
    "total_assets_t": 15462000000,
    "net_income_t": 678000000,
    "cfo_t": 1227000000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-09-30",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884614/000088461425000053/0000884614-25-000053-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2025-11-21"
  }
}