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WTM

WHITE MOUNTAINS INSURANCE GROUP, LTD
CIK 0000776867 · EDGAR ↗
cleanelevatedtriggeredno dataplanned
83.9
composite · 4 signals · TRIGGERED

Every card below shows the score and the exact filing data it was computed from — no unexplained numbers. Some signals (P-02, P-03, P-08, P-09, P-10, P-11) pull live documents from SEC EDGAR the first time you view this company; a few of those (P-03, P-10, P-11) use AI to read the filing text, but every AI claim must quote the actual document verbatim or it's discarded — never a guess.

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Signals

P-01 · FY 2025-12-31 · TRIGGERED53.3

Earnings quality

Beneish M-Score -1.72 exceeds the -1.78 manipulation threshold
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) ↗
Evidence — inputs and thresholds
{
  "m_score": -1.724,
  "threshold": -1.78,
  "ratios": {
    "DSRI": 1,
    "GMI": 1.029,
    "AQI": 1,
    "SGI": 1.668,
    "DEPI": 1,
    "SGAI": 1,
    "LVGI": 1.2,
    "TATA": 0.045
  },
  "defaulted_to_neutral": [
    "DSRI",
    "AQI",
    "DEPI",
    "SGAI"
  ],
  "sloan_accruals": 0.05,
  "inputs": {
    "revenue_t": 3735000000,
    "revenue_t1": 2239800000,
    "total_assets_t": 12306500000,
    "net_income_t": 1106400000,
    "cfo_t": 550500000
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/776867/000162828026012603/0001628280-26-012603-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}
P-05 · FY 2025-12-31 · TRIGGERED91.2

Tax arbitrage

ETR 9.6% vs 21% statutory — gap persistent across 3 of 3 years
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) ↗
Evidence — inputs and thresholds
{
  "etr_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 0.0955,
    "2024-12-31": 0.1029,
    "2023-12-31": -0.0274
  },
  "statutory_rate": 0.21,
  "gap_by_year": {
    "2025-12-31": 0.1145,
    "2024-12-31": 0.1071,
    "2023-12-31": 0.2374
  },
  "note": "Low ETR can be fully legitimate; this flags persistence + magnitude for review.",
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/776867/000162828026012603/0001628280-26-012603-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}
P-07 · FY 2016-12-31 · TRIGGERED70.3

Pension underfunding

[FY2016 data, stale — no more recent pension disclosure in XBRL] DB plan 55% funded — -$11M deficit (0% of equity)
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2019-02-27) ↗
Evidence — inputs and thresholds
{
  "benefit_obligation": 23800000,
  "plan_assets": 13000000,
  "funded_ratio": 0.5462,
  "deficit": -10800000,
  "deficit_vs_equity": 0.003,
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": "<90% funded",
    "triggered": "<80% funded or deficit >25% of equity"
  },
  "stale": true,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/776867/000077686719000008/0000776867-19-000008-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2019-02-27"
  }
}
P-12 · FY 2025-12-31 · TRIGGERED74.0

Restatement predictor

F-Score 2.22 — misstatement risk 2.2x the base rate
trend: flat
Trend
Source: 10-K on SEC.gov (filed 2026-02-27) ↗
Evidence — inputs and thresholds
{
  "f_score": 2.22,
  "probability": 0.00822,
  "components": {
    "rsst": 0.05,
    "drec": null,
    "dinv": null,
    "soft": 1,
    "dcs": 0.6676,
    "droa": 0.0667,
    "issue": 1
  },
  "model": "Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1 (simplified RSST)",
  "thresholds": {
    "elevated": 1,
    "triggered": 1.85
  },
  "stale": false,
  "latest_filing_period": "2025-12-31",
  "source": {
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/776867/000162828026012603/0001628280-26-012603-index.htm",
    "form": "10-K",
    "filed": "2026-02-27"
  }
}